There are two types of appeal to history. The first is committed by arguments that use past cases as a guide to the future. This is the predictive appeal to history fallacy. Just because something has been the case to date, doesn’t mean that it will continue to be the case.

This is not to say that we can’t use the past as a guide to the future, merely that predictions of the future based on the past need to be treated with caution.

The second type of appeal to history is committed when it is argued that because something has been done a particular way in the past, it ought to be done that way in the future. This is the normative appeal to history fallacy, the appeal to tradition. The way that things have always been done is not necessarily the best way to do them. It may be that circumstances have changed, and that what used to be best practice is no longer. Alternatively, it may be that people have been consistently getting it wrong in the past. In either case, using history as a model for future would be a mistake.

Example

At the start of the 2006 Premiership season, some might have argued, “Under Jose Mourinho, Chelsea have been unstoppable in the Premiership; the other teams might as well give up on the league now and concentrate on the Cup competitions.”

Links

• Logical Fallacies .Info – Appeal to Tradition
• Michael LaBossiere’s Fallacies Introduction – Appeal to Tradition

Case Studies

• Teachers Strike Over Below Inflation Pay Rises
• The Wages of Spin